International Choice Modelling Conference, International Choice Modelling Conference 2011

Transport choices in remote communities

Jon Crockett, David Connolly, Brittany Byrd, Gerard Whelan, David Notman

Last modified: 27 June 2011

Abstract


Ferry services are essential to the wellbeing and quality of life of residents in Scotland’s islands and remote peninsulas. They connect residents with key services and opportunities, and provide affordable access for tourists and visitors. To ensure that the services receive the correct level of public funding, it is important to understand the value that residents and visitors put on these services.

 

The aim of the study was to develop an up-to-date evidence base that could be used to forecast demand and appraise a variety of options for changes to ferry services.  To this end, Stated Preference (SP) research was undertaken on a representative sample of routes across the northern and western seaboards of Scotland.  This varied from shorter commute and day trip services on the River Clyde to overnight sailings to the Shetland and Orkney Isles.  A total sample of 1,350 respondents was achieved, providing a robust basis for the development of new guidance.

 

The primary research and subsequent data analysis provided insights into how behaviour and choices differ in this rural context from the more traditional urban contexts. The value of time was found to display a strong correlation with distance. Further investigation showed a number of interesting factors at play, including increased incomes, markedly different journey purposes, and the possibility that, for example, a two hour time saving was viewed as a more productive period per minute than an equivalent five minute saving.  The infrequent nature of the network also allowed the concept of Schedule Adjustment Time to be investigated, with the possibility of services departing or arriving many hours or later than in the current timetable.  Statistically significant relationships of a plausible sign and magnitude were identified on this relatively under-researched topic. 

 

In addition to the more traditional market segment variables of journey purpose and income, the survey also included questions pertaining to attitudes and lifestyles.  Subsequent profiling using cluster analysis revealed latent segmentation variables that accounted for difference in taste and preference across the sample.  In particular there were differences with regard to whether respondents were native to the island or peninsula served, and the views of residents and visitors alike in preserving a feeling of remoteness and tranquillity.


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